The 2015 Internet Trend report by Mary Meeker came out last week. For those that don't like numbers, I submit the loch ness monster for your entertainment. The California draught has him beached at the moment which is probably where, as consumers of healthcare, we are headed. This post may be a little dry (no pun intended), or you may ask yourself "tell me something I don't know," but here is the hard data that tells us we need to prepare to pay more for our healthcare and it's going to be harder to know what coverage we actually have. There is no magic pill to make it better, so don't expect a sugar coating.
The 2015 Internet Trend is a broad based report that provides the data behind technology trends. Kleinerperkins did a fantastic job. I was surprised to find data about the healthcare industry, but the presentation points to technological opportunity in this area to provide more of an 'automated' and 'fun' interaction to manage and prevent chronic disease. This might work with people that understand and use technology, and have time before they are ill, but what about the elderly that don't understand or trust technology and aren't connected today?
First the numbers --
The Babyboomers were born between 1946-1964. The 'boom' refers to the fact that there was a surge in new born children during this time frame associated to men returning from war and ultimately starting their families. After 1964, the surge leveled out and even declined. The average size of a US household today is 2.5 people. I don't know how you get half a person <snicker>. The obvious is that the Boomer generation is now leaving the traditional workforce. Many US social programs like Social Security, Medicare, unemployment, and disability insurance (among others) were implemented during this time frame and were based on the premise that there will always be the right proportion of working people paying into these social programs to sustain them and then collect the benefits when needed, I.E. retirement, disability etc . With fewer people paying into the system, and more people qualifying to receive benefits, the 'money pool', like the California reservoirs, is growing smaller. (tell us something we don't know) News flash: The data above confirms that as of 2015 Boomers are no longer the key contributors to the system.
The data above is specific to social insurance benefits, but I think there is a logical relationship between a certain age demographic no longer working and the number of government benefit recipients rising.
This week I had a conversation with someone originally from the UK. He said that many European countries adopted social medicine after WWII because so many were in need of medical care. If everyone didn't pitch in to contribute to healing their population, there wouldn't be enough healthy people to rebuild. I think Americans are lagging with this understanding and aren't used to personally contributing to their health insurance. Complaints about Obamacare are starting to get louder because we are starting to see the increased cost to cover the uninsured segment of our population.
Employers are asking their employees to contribute more toward the cost of health insurance. The data in the graph above supports this. This trend will continue because it is written into the Affordable Healthcare Act. Hang-in and continue reading...
So let's review: Less people are paying into the social insurance system, more people are entitled to social insurance benefits, employers are contributing less, while employees are asked to contribute more. Still haven't heard anything new? What about the 2018 Cadillac Tax?
I had to look this one up because it was new to me. Just a few articles from April 2015:
"At issue is a 40 percent excise tax on the health benefits companies provide their workers above a certain threshold. In 2018, the tax will hit insurance and related perks valued at more than $10,200 for singles and $27,500 for families. So for family benefits worth $30,000, the tax would apply to the $2,500 that’s above the limit."
Forbes: Obamacare 40% Cadillac Tax Hits No Frills Plans Too
"Across the board, the Cadillac tax puts pressure on employers to offer less-generous health insurance plans."
There are so many conversations about this, I must have been living under a rock. To be honest, when I was getting corporate insurance, I naively assumed social benefits didn't impact me, so meh?
The message of the 2015 Internet Trends report is not to set off bells and whistles about the direction of health care in the US. There are plenty of other dedicated sources that are doing this intentionally. I'm using it as a reference source because of the compelling evidence provided by an organization without bias in the healthcare arena. To circle back to my original point about the elderly and their families that are struggling to navigate the complexity of health benefits, we are going to need more than a tool to remind us that we need to take more steps during the day. The data we have today says Medicare will be bankrupt in 2030. I bet this will be accelerated as we put more pressure on the consumer/employee/citizen to buy expensive coverage and lower the entitlement requirements. Let's be honest, it's election season and this should be a platform line-item. No politician wants to be known for hanging the needy out to dry.
Healthcare, home-health, caregiving, medication, chronic illness, a large chunk of our population receiving benefits rather than paying into the system, cost of developing sophisticated technology are things we all need. Why are we trying to reinvent the wheel? Shouldn't we be looking at the countries that have figured this out?